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The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver is an interesting read about why predictions fail and how they can improve. Using current and relevant examples such as the housing bubble/stock market crash, political elections, terrorism, poker, and athlete performance, Silver turns what may be a difficult of even dull subject (statistics) into one people can relate to. Relevant to performance, my favorite anecdote came from his experience as a poker player and interviewing expert poker players.

While skill certainly plays a role in success in poker, luck also has a significant impact – particularly over the short term. One of Silver’s main points throughout the book is that predictions necessarily deal with probability rather than certainty. Unfortunately, certainty is what gets you on TV and leads to many bad predictions that can have a big impact (for example, the housing bubble being exacerbated by financial analysts certain that real estate never goes down or certain that Bear Stearns is a great investment).

Due to the vast number of opportunities (every hand is a new opportunity) poker players have, they are able to see themselves play well and win, play well and lose, play bad and lose, and play bad and win. Therefore, they are able to see that process and results are two separate things. In the short run, good results can happen with a good or a bad process. However, over the long run focusing on going through the correct process will lead to much greater success.

Following the right process is not sexy, doesn’t always get you results in the short run, and is not what you are going to hear glamorized on TV. Yet, it is the only way to achieve sustained success over the long run in whatever your performance endeavor happens to be.

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Focus: Confidence

Confidence, or lack thereof, is one of the most common challenges that sport & performance psychology consultants are asked to assist with. In order to address confidence, it is first necessary to understand it. Simply put, confidence is pre-knowing that you are capable of meeting the demands of the task/challenge you are facing. Confidence is different from arrogance or cockiness, which are both more often an overreaction to uncertainty: not knowing that you are capable of meeting demands and attempting to cover this up with (over) assurance. Another key difference is that confidence is internally focused, about knowing what you can do. Arrogance and cockiness are externally focused, falsely thinking that you are better than some external opponent or criterion. This is an important distinction because I have seen many people sabotage their confidence because they did not want to be perceived as cocky or arrogant. Because confidence is internally focused (self confidence), there is no risk of true confidence being misperceived as arrogance or cockiness.

Perhaps surprisingly, confidence can effectively be built through two points of focus. Of course, this does not mean it is easy to be consistently confident, but these are the tools to begin building your skill of confidence. These points are once again thanks to Dr. Rick McGuire.

1) Competence Builds Confidence

If you want to feel confident, the first step is to actually develop your skill so you have something to be confident in. While this may seem self-evident, we have all seen people attempting something where they clearly are not highly skilled still become frustrated that they are not performing as well as they “should.” The person on the basketball court that screams and curses every time the shot is missed…on the golf course cursing out their clubs for every shanked shot…the tennis court…the boardroom…the performance stage. Unfortunately for these folks, they are performing exactly as they “should” because they have not put in the time to build competence. Develop your skill, realistically appraise your skill level, adjust your expectations accordingly (you are not the person on TV for a reason), and watch your confidence blossom.

2) Focus Confidence on the Performance, Not the Outcome

In short, this means that even when we are capable of doing something it is not always going to turn out the way that we would like. This is the reason sports and performances are so captivating. We never know what is going to happen. It is also the reason so many people feel like their confidence is a mysterious force that comes and (more often) goes. If your confidence is wrapped up in outcomes, then just like outcomes sometimes it will be there and sometimes it will not. Do this long enough, and it is not there very often because we are constantly reminded of the unpredictable nature of performance, and this undermines our outcome-focused confidence. Focusing on the performance, on the other hand, puts confidence directly in our control. While we may not always get the outcome that we desire, we can always have a successful performance. Through our effort and will we can deliver all the capability that we have to deliver, and perform to the best of our capabilities on that particular day, at that particular event. Focusing on success will develop consistency in both our performances and our confidence.

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SUCCESS

One of the key distinctions we make in sport & performance psychology is between process and outcome. Performers are typically focused on outcomes: winning, money, fame, medals, accolades, media coverage, etc. While these outcomes are certainly desirable and seductive, an important lesson we teach is that becoming overly focused on outcomes actually makes the achievement of outcomes less likely. This is because getting too wrapped up in outcomes distracts us from the process of performance. Process is all of the things we do that allow outcomes to happen. Process includes technique, strategy, strength, speed, nutrition, sleep, rest/recovery, etc. Another important distinction is that outcomes are largely outside of our control (for example, your opponent has something to say about your likelihood of winning) while process goals are typically within our control (we can execute our technique regardless of our opponent or circumstances). Finally, outcomes gain attention because they are easily measured: you don’t have to try and figure our whether you won or lost.

In order to counteract the shortcomings of outcomes, my mentor Dr. Rick McGuire developed a formula for success that provides us with a process that is (with one exception) within our control and that gives us a way to measure success (more information can be found in his book Coaching Mental Excellence):

SUCCESS = Ability X Preparation X Effort X Will

Ability, often called talent, is the raw material we are born with. This is the aspect of the formula for success that is out of our control as it is a gift from our parents. Unfortunately, our society gives undue credit to talent, oftentimes valuing it over people that have to work hard to achieve. We also often limit ourselves by believing that we are not talented enough. In most cases, this is simply not true. As referenced earlier, Ericsson, whose work has been popularized in the Talent Code and Outliers, has provided evidence that expertise is almost entirely determined by the extent to which one has engaged in deliberate practice – the next part of the formula.

Preparation, or practice, is how we develop our ability/talent. Without preparation, our ability is unusable. Preparation turn ability into capability – skills that we can reliably and effectively use in our performances.

Effort is how we deliver our skills in the competitive arena. Giving great effort takes tremendous willpower and courage. It leaves us exhausted and exposed, vulnerable to the critics. It is also often mocked by our culture, which idolizes performers who make it look “effortless.” Unfortunately what is missed is that the performances look effortless because the performers have put more time and effort into preparation and competition. The greatest performers are always the greatest practicers (for example, Michael Jordan, Jerry Rice, Mia Hamm, Peyton Manning – all are respected for their tremendous preparation and effort). These “naturally talented” athletes appear that way because they have already outworked their opponents before stepping into the competitive arena.

And sometimes all of the ability, preparation, and effort that a performer has is not enough. This is the true meaning of competition. It is the “moment of truth,” “crunch time,” when the competition is decided. It is the point at which the performer feels they have given all that they have to give, and then realize that the competition demands more. Will is the choice to find more. It is willpower, cultivated through all of the hours of preparation and effort, that allows them to deliver the little bit more that they did not know was possible.

This is SUCCESS. Taking the ability that you were born with, developing it into capability, putting forth maximum effort, and then willing yourself to do more than you thought possible. When you do this, do you need to know the outcome to know whether to feel great about yourself or not? What more could you do? You are a success. And if you happen to not get the outcome you were hoping for? While there is not always another chance to win a gold medal, there is always an opportunity for more preparation, effort, and will. SUCCESS!